100TWC - Day 65: A Moment In Time

Barg sat in front of his Nexus Editor, staring at the scene it displayed. He frowned. His friend and colleague (and also, although neither of them let this stand in the way of their friendship or work relationship, his team leader) Admirator Snell, looked across from where he was tutoring a new Editor.

"Problem?"
"It's this same scene," said Barg. "I've been looking at it for hours and I can't decide which way to go."
"Run it through for me then," said Snell, trying not to sound patronising.
"Subject is Artemis Pandraptis, and he is running for his train. The parameter controlling the nexus is his arrival at the door of the train - an urban light railway with automated doors and driver - and there are three options."
"Go on."
"In option one, his arm hits the door as it is closing, but he is in time for the sensors to detect his fingers and the door reopens to admit him to the train. He boards, and arrives home in time to enjoy a meal with his wife Bariana who has just discovered she is pregnant with their first child."
"Sounds like a good option."
"At this stage it is, but there are complications which I'll come to later. In option two, Artemis is delayed by 11.8 milliseconds, which is just long enough for the doors to fail to open. The train leaves without him."
"So he doesn't make dinner."
"Correct. But it's worse than that for his wife. The slightly elevated stress levels at his lateness lead to increased amounts of cortisone and a few other hormones in her blood. At such an early stage of pregnancy these are sufficient to cause her to miscarry."
"Unfortunate. It sounds clearly like a less favourable option."
"Well, yes, but that's also connected with the complications I mentioned earlier. The child -- should it survive -- has, shall we say, a less than auspicious future ahead of it. But let me outline the third option before we come to that."
"OK, go ahead."
"In the third option, Artemis is delayed slightly longer. By..." Barg fingered another part of his Nexus screen and scrolled down the list of numbers that appeared, "... another 650 milliseconds. That's long enough not only for him to miss the door but also for the train to start to move out of the station. The unexpected movement causes him to knock his glasses off, and when he bends down to retrieve them the backdraft from the departing train overbalances him. He falls onto the track and is electrocuted. Fatally."
"Oh dear, no! How tragic!"
"Indeed. The consequences for the unborn child are the same -- after all, Artemis will still be late for dinner -- but it is the effect on Bariana that are most significant. She will, eventually, repartner and in doing so... well... the variables at this point defeat me."
"And are there any other effects to take into account on the station?"
"What I've described is the focus of the nexus. There are one hundred and eleven thousand nine hundred and fifty-six other split points within a 5-second bracketing window around the nexus, but none of them have such significant effect on society one way or another."
"OK. I think we've reached the point where we must consider those effects then. You mentioned the child?"
"Yes. The child Bariana is presently carrying, if he survives, will grow up to be Narsis She'Ath."
"The mass murderer?"
"The very same."
"I begin to see your dilemma."
"If it was a dilemma it would not be so difficult to resolve Snell. In this case there are three variables. There is Artemis to consider, and also the results of Bariana's new relationship in the event of his death."
"Artemis Prandraptis you said? You don't mean he's THE Prandraptis? The discoverer of the Prandraptis effect?"
"I'm surprised you didn't recognise him. Although he is quite a bit younger at this nexus than when he becomes famous."
"But, we can't let him die! Mankind's future depends on him!"
"Its future in space travel, certainly. My calculations -- and I admit with such lengthy extrapolation they only have a 7.4% probability of being accurate -- suggest that in the absence of Prandraptis it will take another 145 years before humans achieve faster-than-light space travel."
"So your choice - forgive me - ONE of your choices, is between humans reaching the stars in this century and allowing the Murderer of Mars to come into the world?"
"You begin to see my problem."